I catalog autographs from key celebrities for this catalog project. Signatures from important celebrities increase values of certificates, sometimes dramatically.

Two classes of "autographs"

This project is intended to catalog collectible certificates from North American railroads. Signatures of famous and important individuals can affect values of those certificates. I list autographs differently, depending on whether I consider them:

• worthy of mention or
• worthy of separate listing and valuation

Autographs that deserve mention

I mention autographs that have attracted attention over time. My criteria for mentioning autographs are:

• Dealers and collectors recognize signatories as people of fame.
• Autographs from those famous people show moderate collector appeal.

Fame is a hard quality to determine. For their autographs to be collectible and valuable over a long period of time, celebrities must impact history. Be aware that great fame in a short period of time or within one region of the world does not automatically convey enduring fame.

Specialists commonly desire autographs that ordinary collectors know nothing about. When specialists bid against each other, they can cause temporary price spikes for autographs that might no otherwise attract attention. I try to ignore temporary price spikes. I attempt to to determine how much non-specialist collectors will desire autographs in the future. Just because autographs attract high values once does NOT mean they will attract high values the next time.

There are large numbers of now-obscure individuals who were dramatically important to specific regions or specific industries. Some may have been temporary celebrities and may have affected the course of history in somewhat important ways. Perhaps some of those individuals should be more well known than they are. Regardless of their potential historical importance, price records clearly show that autographs from obscure "celebrities" are usually not worth much.

There have been a few cases where books, motion pictures and television programs have altered the public's perceptions of previously obscure individuals. Values of autographs often grow very quickly in response to sudden public attention. Given sufficient time, however, collector interest almost always cycles back toward previous levels. Dealers can most assuredly profit from short-term popularity of obscure autographs. Collectors, however, may be disappointed when they try to liquidate those autographs many years later.

Try to be aware of the long-term popularity of specific autographs. Do not let any seller convince you to overpay for obscure autographs. Beware of artificial hype. Sellers can make obscure individuals sound terribly interesting and important when, in fact, many have minimal claim to fame.

Autographs that deserve separate listings and price estimates

In late 2009, I thoroughly re-examined all the autographs listed in my database. I found it impossible to justify estimating values for all obscure autographs.

Collectors generally believe that autographs should enhance the values of certificates on which they appear. Some autographs enhance values very substantially, but autographs are not created equal.

In truth, many so-called autographs have no noticeable effect on certificate. Experienced collectors already understand this fact. I am greatly more concerned with inexperienced collectors.

My unyielding policy is to avoid implying false or fleeting values to inexperienced collectors.

Below these thresholds, I do not think it is possible to determine whether autographs contribute to certificate values.

Collectible certificates display an inescapable price reality. Actual prices paid for nearly identical non-autographed certificates are exceedingly variable. If I estimate values for a particular variety at $100, it is common to see prices range from $40 to $225 within a year or two. Certificates that appear less frequently show even more severe price fluctuations.

With large price ranges as the backdrop, I pose two questions:

• Why estimate values of so-called autographed certificates if we cannot detect the values of autographs separate from the certificates on which they appear?
• Why run the risk of deluding less experienced collectors by estimating values for autographs from minor and obscure celebrities?

Let's examine the ramifications of estimating autograph values when prices are so highly variable

Let's say an ordinary certificate generally sells for $5 to $10. If a celebrity autograph routinely increases the values of those certificates to $30 to $40, that autograph probably deserves a separate listing.

Autographs that appear on more expensive certificates are more troublesome. Let's imagine that a scarcer variety of non-autographed certificate sold in the U.S. for $225 to $275 during the last two years. I would probably estimate the value of that certificate at $250. Now imagine that an autographed example of that certificate sold for $325 in a German auction. Does that autograph deserve listing?

Not necessarily. American railroad certificates typically sell for 25% or 30% more in Germany than they do in the U.S. Therefore, we would expect certificates that sell for $250 in the U.S. to sell for about $325 in Germany. From that perspective, the celebrity autograph probably added no additional value.

On the other hand, if previous sales had taken place in Europe (instead of the U.S.) at $225 to $275, then we have a different story. In that situation, the autograph had a clear impact on price. The autograph clearly raised prices from about $250 to $325 and therefore fetched a $75 premium.

List of autographs

Sellers often promote autographs of individuals of little or no celebrity. I will NOT list those kinds of unimportant autographs.

I understand that reasonable people will disagree with my choices of listed autographs. Some may even think it is okay to delude beginners. I don't. I do NOT want to mislead collectors into thinking all autographs have value.

If ever in doubt about valuation or inclusion, please remember:

Autograph collecting is usually about the money.

Signatures from major personalities – Commodore Vanderbilt, Rockefeller, Carnegie – are expensive and have been for years. The values of Morgan, Harriman and Gould are still moderately pricey, but have lost value in the last decade.

Signatures from minor and local celebrities have limited values outside of small numbers of specialists. Signatures from individual company presidents may be important to collectors of single lines, but price records prove that few other collectors seem to care.

Third, fourth- and fifth-generation Vanderbilts may have been valorous individuals, but their signatures often have limited value. A famous last name does confer automatic value to autographs.

Yes, there are specialists who collect locally famous military figures, politicians, U.S. Senators, presidential cabinet members, university founders, philanthropists, brokers and speculators. Regardless of rarity, long-term price records clearly indicate extreme specialties attract limited interest. When interest is narrow, prices are low. Highly specialized autographs often experience short-lived price spikes.

Again, my philosophy is simple – – –

What if you don't know whether an autograph comes from a genuine celebrity? Information about true celebrities should be easy to find. Descriptions of genuine celebrities always appear in:

• major biographies
• major biographical dictionaries
• major encyclopedic sources

Millions of online sources are acceptable sources for information, but the same rules should apply. Scattered appearances on a few web pages does not make someone a celebrity. References should be numerous and diverse.

There is a simple test for celebrity:

• If it is hard to find information about people who signed certificates, then those people were not major personalities. Don't let anyone tell you they were.

Take Henry Oppenheimer, for instance. His signature is found on hundreds, perhaps thousands, of B&O certificates from around 1900. He had a famous last name. He obviously controlled significant wealth. However, I challenge anyone to discover who that man was. (See my December, 2004 newsletter for more discussion of Oppenheimer.)

Appearances in a few sales does not make autographs valuable

Major autographs will sell in multiple major auctions and they will appear in many different dealers' price lists.

There are crucial ideas to consider:

• Just because auction catalogs list certificates with "autographs" does not mean those autographs are truly valuable.
• A large percentage of autographed certificates go unsold.
• Just because eBay sellers chatter about "rare" signatures does not make those autographs either rare or valuable. Beware of eBay seller hype.
• Signatures that sell for high prices one time may not necessarily sell for high prices later. Important autographs show widespread appeal and their appeal will be long-term and repetitive.

Two warnings for beginning and intermediate autograph collectors.

NEVER collect autographs unless you know precisely why YOU must own them. Who cares whether sellers list specific names as "autographs"? Mentioning names does NOT make autographs valuable. It does not mean that autographs will become valuable in the future. Why would you spend money on autographs if you don't genuinely want them for your collection?

I recognize that specialists collect autographs from hundreds of individuals who do not appear in my list. Some autographs have significant local values. Please understand that autographs of locally-important individuals usually have limited value elsewhere.

What about certificates issued to celebrities, but not signed by them? Some people collect famous names on certificates, even though the celebrities did not sign them.

There is definitely some demand for those kinds of curiosities. I DO list a few "issued to" certificates when they meet the same valuation requirements as autographs: they must sell for at least $25 more than ordinary certificates and they must increase certificate values by at least 25%.

I beg you in the strongest possible way. Please buy autographs and autograph-related certificates cautiously.