Prices on this website are NOT eBay prices.

These prices represent estimates of prices of certificates when they sell in well-attended, well-promoted live auctions. Live auction prices are often much higher than eBay prices. This reflects differences in the numbers and types of buyers and sellers, as well as noticeable differences in professionalism.

I have recorded eBay prices every day for several years. These records disclose several interesting relationships between eBay prices and live auction prices.

(1) As a rule, eBay prices are higher than live auction prices among very cheap (sub-$10) certificates.

(2) Among slightly higher priced certificates ($10 to $35), eBay prices and live auction prices are roughly equal.

(3) Above that level, live auction prices exceed eBay prices. The differences become very pronounced in certificates that sell for more than $100.

(4) Among high-priced certificates (over $300), live auction prices are often 50% to 150% higher than eBay prices. Many professional dealers buy high-value certificates on eBay and resell in fixed-price catalogs and live auctions.

I want to stress -- in the strongest possible way! -- that my price estimates do NOT reflect eBay sales prices. Please see my November, 2006 newsletter for more on the subject of eBay pricing.

The complexity of estimating prices.

Estimating prices for collectibles is a complicated subject. You could spend years studying pricing and you would still be surprised.

Huge numbers of factors affect prices. In order to feel comfortable buying collectibles, you must understand that pricing is ambiguous, unpredictable, and variable. It is much more complicated than the concept of supply and demand implies.

First, you must understand that value is established at only ONE discreet point in time. That moment is when one buyer and one seller agree on price. Every valuation before that moment is an estimate. Every valuation after that moment is an estimate.

Following is a discussion of some of the factors I use when I estimate prices for collectible certificates. Please, bookmark this page and return occasionally. I frequently add new thoughts.

Do not buy, sell, or bid on certificates based solely on the opinions offered in this database.

Ideally, you should take a little time and compare my prices with those you encounter. Then factor my prices, either higher or lower, for your market. If you live in the U.S., my prices may seem a little high. If you live in Europe, my prices may seem substantially low.

I have no involvement in buying or selling certificates. I do not care whether a particular item sells for $10 or a $100. I merely report what I see.

There are many times when I cannot learn sales prices. Or when items go unsold in auctions. In those instances, I estimate selling prices based on other factors -- collector demand, probable rarity, attractiveness, desirability, location, condition, color, dates, printers, autographs, and so forth.

"Lagging indicators" are indicators that follow markets. As prices rise and fall, my prices will lag by days or months. Super-rare items only appear on the market every few years, so my prices may lag by years. The goal is to report prices.

Predicting prices is difficult because the market for collectible certificates is "thin". While there may be a few tens of thousands of collectors worldwide, only a fraction will be interested in a particular item at a particular in time. Many people may be interested in expensive certificates, but only a few will be able to buy. Language barriers further decrease the number of collectors who will participate in auctions or buy from fixed price lists.

In short, the thinner the market, the harder it is to predict prices.

Prices reflect items in average condition.

Unlike coins and stamps, the population of collectible certificates is very,very small. There are too few certificates to estimate prices for certificates in condition categories. It stands to reason that heavily canceled, stained, folded, and torn certificates are worth less than certificates in pristine condition. However, some certificates are unknown in good condition. While average condition may not be terribly attractive, it is usually the only condition available.

Certificates are collectibles

It is almost heretical to say this publicly. But, by themselves, most certificates HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO INTRINSIC VALUE.

Considered by themselves, collectible certificates are nothing more than paper. Beginners do not want to admit that they are collecting things with no value. But, this is one of the most important steps toward understanding how collectibles are priced.

The"value" of certificates resides strictly in the fact that they are collectible.

Yes, collectibles may be highly sought after. But no matter how many collectors want certificates, realize that collectible certificates have no value except in the minds and the hearts of the people who collect them.

Collectors' desires give value to collectible certificates. Desire is tremendously powerful. It is what gives enduring passion to this and other hobbies. Desire causes certificates to have value, and affects how high those prices will be.

At the same time, desire makes the hobby expensive.

Understand this concept and you will understand pricing.

Even raw beginners, if they think about it, already know this. Imagine a situation where only one person wanted to collect something. Would that item have any extraordinary value? Certainly, not.

But what if two people want the same item at the same time? And what if there is only one such item that they both want? What would be the value be to those two people? Whichever collector wants the item the most is the one willing to pay the most. That person will set the value of the object.

A miniscule percentage of collectible stocks and bonds are still valid securities.

How do you know if certificates are still tradable? Contact a professional. Go to my page on Values as Securities to learn more and find links to specialists in the field. Remember, jJust because certificates are uncanceled does not mean they retain value as securities.

Also, be aware that NO U.S. bond can be redeemed for gold. See my discussion on the subject by clicking on Gold Bonds and Scams and Hypes. Also visit the U.S. Treasury Department's web site.

Let me emphasize that the value of every collectible is determined at only one point in time. That is the time that a sale takes place between one buyer and one seller.

Oddly, even when transactions take place, buyers and sellers rarely agree on values. They agree on prices. Nothing else!

This is another critical distinction. At the moment of sale, buyers usually think that certificates are worth more than the prices they agree to pay. At the same instant, sellers think their items are worth more, or less, than they are agreeing to sell for. After a period of negotiation, buyers and sellers temporarily agree and make their deals.

Opinions change quickly, so estimated prices are exceedingly liquid.

In fact, the perception of value is so liquid that buyers and sellers often change their minds within seconds of agreement. It is not uncommon for both buyers and sellers to regret their agreements.

It is impossible to estimate prices based on everyone's opinions. Therefore, the prices published here are "snapshots" of opinions.

There is a paradox in creating price estimates: prices are only correct when everyone disagrees. Ideally, half of all interested observers should think my price estimates are too high and the other half should argue that prices are too low.

In other words, everyone should disagree with me to some degree.

Seems kind of weird, doesn't it? If I am doing my job reasonably well, almost everyone will disagree with my estimates.

I recognize the risk of valuing collectibles. Therefore, I expressly accept no liability for implying that any of these certificates have "value."

I repeat. Collectible certificates do not have "value." They have collectible prices that change continuously.

Theoretically, I could offer you a database of listings and let you guess at prices. But a listing of certificates without prices would be nearly worthless. So, I show you ranges of prices at which buyers and sellers normally trade certificates.

I expressly warn you that it is common to see certificates sell for substantially more and substantially less than my estimates. My goal is simply to offer collectors honest opinions of prices based on historic selling activity between buyers and sellers.

For the most part, I try to express opinions based on recent price activity around the globe. Sometimes, there is no published evidence of sales prices, so I must estimate with nothing more than experience and gut feel. Reasonable people will disagree.

Again, some collectors will think my estimates are too low. Some will think them absurdly high.

I have no stake whatsoever in making prices appear either higher or lower. I neither sell nor collect certificates. I am strictly a cataloger.

Do NOT buy a single collectible certificate if you are unwilling to accept the certainty of price fluctuation. Theoretically, prices rise over time. However, there is an equal possibility that prices will go down.

Of the prices listed in this database, I suggest that prices for autographed certificates are most susceptible to fluctuation. They are extremely sensitive to the ebb and flow of demand.

The prices of autographed items reflect what is happening in the autograph hobby. Autograph collecting is a separate hobby that overlaps with the collectible certificate hobby. Please, do not buy or sell expensive autographed items until you understand the autograph hobby and how autographs are priced.

I will stress this point one more time. Prices can and do go down. This should be your most compelling reason to never overpay. Yes, YOU may be willing to pay a high amount for a certificate. But that does not mean the next person will.

Uniform prices do not exist in this hobby. It is merely accidental if different sellers offer similar certificates for the same price at the same time.

Certificate collecting is a global hobby. The prices paid in the U.S. are different than those paid in Canada, Great Britain, Germany, and the rest of Europe. Prices paid at shows are different than those paid at auctions.

I show my price opinions as ranges. I suggest that most - but certainly not all - transactions will likely take place between the high and low price estimates.

Prices are expressed in U.S. dollars.

I adjust prices up and down based on recent price activity. I change approximately 200 prices per month.

I change price estimates constantly based upon sales. While I factor price estimates for sales in the United States, some certificates are known only from European sales.

North American railroad certificates routinely appear in American, British, German, Belgian, and Swiss auctions and fixed-price catalogs. Generally, prices are lowest in the U.S. and highest in Germany. That difference reflects different availability and different attitudes toward collecting.

In general, I report the prices I see. If items appear for sale only in Europe, then those are the prices I report.

If items appear in the U.S. in many different venues, then I report prices that reflect U.S. averages. Sometimes, there is a wide disparity in prices. In those cases, I try to report the prices I think the typical collector is likely to pay. My goal is not to convince high-price dealers to lower their prices. Nor do I try to convince low-price dealers to raise their prices. That is the responsibility of buyers. I merely try to report what I see.

I estimate the prices of common and scarce items differently. For common items, I rely heavily on catalogs and fixed-price lists that dealers publish. I do not use prices from retail stores, flea markets, antique stores, or coin shows because those prices are wildly variable.

I generally start with a range of observed prices and factor in personal observations about customer demand, rarity, attractiveness, and current trends.

I also factor in recent sales of large numbers of certificates which will affect certificate availability in the near future. Generally, when hoards hit the market, they push prices down for several years until certificates are fully dispersed among collectors.

I depend almost exclusively on auction results from professional auction companies to estimate the values of scarce and rare items. I lean heavily on prices realized at recent auctions. If rare items have not appeared for several years, I factor in price growth slightly above inflation rates. I always include auction commissions in my estimates.

Since I track auctions around the globe, I often see similar items sold for hugely different prices from place to place. Often, buyers in one sale will not know that similar items are listed for sale elsewhere. Information is never distributed evenly. Auction bidding, therefore, operates in somewhat of a vacuum.

If two or more nearly identical certificates sell in the same auction, they will normally sell for different amounts, and both will commonly be below average.

I try to design my price range estimates to accommodate most auction activity. There are many, many times, though, when certificates sell significantly outside of the normal range in one auction and sell quite normally in another.

As a rule, I find that the prices realized on online auction sites are artificially low. I believe that reflects two realities.

First, there may only be a handful of people who will discover a certificate in time to place bids. While there are millions of people continuously bidding online, there may only be three or four people who will find and bid on a single certificate.

Secondly, the sales ability of online sellers is often very limited. Online auction sites (like eBay) require sellers to promote their items just as they would in newspaper classified ads. It is often difficult to properly describe certificates. Moreover, images shown on electronic auctions sites are often so poor and unattractive that bidders are reluctant to offer high prices for shabby-appearing certificates.

Because pictures and descriptions tend to be so poor, online auctions offer great buying opportunities for knowledgeable collectors and dealers.

(Notice that I said amateur online auctions. There are several highly reputable pros who sell online. They are a completely different story. They are capable of attracting large numbers of buyers and, therefore realize commensurately higher prices.)

Beginning collectors believe that price reflects rarity.

That is not true.

Beginners must understand this concept before they can move into the expert category. Collector demand is the sole determinant of price. Collector demand is a measure of how much collectors want something.

Yes, rarity affects collector demand. But, there is not a one-to-one relationship.

As an example, take certificates from the Harrisburg Portsmouth Mount Joy & Lancaster Rail Road Co. (HAR-465-S-50). They are quite attractive. Many collectors want them. The certificates are not particularly scarce, but there are too few to go around. Collectors generally pay around $350 for certificates in good condition. Equally scarce and less attractive certificates from other companies usually sell for about $75.

Similarly, we can find incredibly scarce items that often sell for under $50!

Such items include plain-looking, generic certificates prepared with handwritten titles. Often, those certificates were used sparingly during the early days of companies, before their engraved certificates were finished. Those kinds of certificates may only be represented by five to ten examples on the whole planet!

Yet, because they are unattractive, collectors do not find them particularly desirable. So they do not generally pay much for them, even though some are extremely rare.

You wil see a wide range of prices between dealers who offer fixed-price lists. One dealer might offer a certificate for $40. Another may price a seemingly identical certificate for $20. Still another may ask $80.

In large auctions, you might even see those same certificates sell for a only a few dollars when combined with other items in large lots. Why the huge ranges?

Extraordinarily high prices might reflect:

Unrealistically low prices happen because of:

Learn how dealers price their certificates

All dealers develop unique pricing strategies. Some lean toward high prices. Others try to keep their prices low, even at the expense of profit.

Study dealer price lists for a few months and you will understand their individual habits. Their prices will rarely match my estimates exactly. Shop around.

In the United States, it is generally understood that dealers' "list prices" are not necessarily the prices at which sales take place. Dealers commonly negotiate prices with buyers. Prices drop when buyers want several items. Prices drop for reliable and friendly buyers. Treat dealers with respect and they will return the favor.

Remember that, just because dealers list high prices in their catalogs, they are not necessarily inflexible.

One could argue that higher-price dealers might actually be better long-term sources of certificates. They are likely to be in business longer than low-price dealers. They are likely to have more ability to deal on prices.

When buying from dealers, NEVER BUY SOLELY ON PRICE. Price is only one variable. Consider condition, rarity, appearance and so forth.

In every auction, you will encounter items that sell for absurdly high and absurdly low prices.

Ignoring absurd prices, experts generally agree that auction prices reflect current collector demand. Nonetheless, prices from any single auction may be misleading. That is because pre-sale promotion and attendance dramatically affects prices.

Professional auctions can be divided into live auctions and mail-bid auctions. Auction houses that specialize in collectibles usually combine live, mail, phone, and electronic bidding.

In auctions of collectibles, auctioneers sell items at frantic paces of 100 to 150 lots per hour. Floor bidders must pay very close attention.

If you attend live auctions, you will notice that the attention of participants varies throughout sales. During periods of low interest, items often sell for less than they would earlier or later in sales. During periods of high interest, "bidding fever" often forces prices overly high.

Be cautious the first time you try to buy at a live auction. Pay attention. In planning your bids, be sure to factor in the commission you must pay the auction house. And never, never, never bid on anything unless you have inspected it first.

Theoretically, no collector really needs any collectible.

In practice, collectors desperately need to collect. The more they need to collect, the more they are willing to pay.

But there is also the issue of time to consider. Collectors who want certificates immediately are usually willing to pay more than collectors who can wait longer.

In general, the suggested prices in this database reflect the prices that leisurely collectors would likely pay. When collectors want certificates quickly, they must be willing to pay more.

Most collectors, including very advanced collectors, are susceptible to marketing. All dealers and professional auction houses use marketing tactics to increase sales. It is not unethical to inform collectors when items are rare, highly sought after, or in extra-good condition.

However, not all marketing is true. Marketing statements that were true yesterday may not be true today. There are many examples of items that were once truly rare that are substantially more common today.

Marketing is designed to elicit emotional responses from collectors, and thereby get them to offer more money. Whether you like it or not, marketing works.

In other words, marketing affects prices.

Based on my conversations with all sorts of collectors over the years, I am convinced that different classes of collectors share the same general motivations for collecting. The same forces and passions seem to drive both rich and poor, experts and beginners.

However, I think there are major differences in the ways the various groups collect.

It appears that the attitudes toward pricing and valuation differ radically between rich collectors and those of modest means. At this fortunate time, certificate collecting is not just a rich person's game.

However, collectors with limited budgets are the most sensitive to valuation.

Yes, this seems obvious. But less obvious is that I must be very cautious when I estimate prices for less expensive certificates.

At the other end of the economic scale, collectors with unlimited budgets are much less sensitive to price. In that realm, acquisition outweighs price. As prices go higher and higher, the less consumed with price those collectors become. I am not saying rich buyers are frivolous. I am simply saying they are more concerned with collecting than actual expenditures.

Why am I even mentioning this concept? Because it directly affects how I estimate prices for extremely rare and desirable certificates. It is very common to see dramatically large variations in prices for "high class" certificates from sale to sale. It is very common to see price swings of several hundred dollars for seemingly similar items. It is a rule that you will see even larger price swings when super-rare autographed certificates cross auction blocks.