I admit it.

I am confused about the direction of prices for collectible stocks and bonds. Some prices are up. Many are down. Prices for some items should be down, but are actually up. And vice versa. As I said a few months ago, prices are wacky.

Mario Boone's auction a month ago in Antwerp (the next listing down) was very curious. Overall, Mario sold about 60% of the lots offered. That percentage was abnormally high for a European sale. Having said that, lots that featured North American railroads only sold half as well as the rest of the sale. In part, I think those low sales percentages reflected overly high owners' reserve amounts rather than market disinterest.

At the other end of the market, the number of certificates being sold on eBay is down substantially. Regardless of sellers' proclamations that their certificates are "rare", most certificates being sold on eBay right now are rather ordinary. And that is where it gets really interesting.

I am seeing that scarcer certificates are, by and large, establishing new lows. At the same time, prices for more common certificates – the certificates you see week in, week out – are moving up.

What the heck is going on ?!? Apparent trends just don't seem to be making a lot of sense.

A few years ago, MK&T certificates with Jay Gould's autograph routinely sold for $350-$400. Lately, some have broken the $175 barrier and are now challenging the $150 level. Certificates with rather common imprinted revenues have been selling for 50% to 100% more than they used to. Prices for very common certificates are up. Prices for medium common to medium scarce certificates are down.

Yes, we can certainly attribute some of this odd price behavior to the global downturn and a general feeling of caution, if not outright fear. It has always been the rule that when people need to liquidate, they sell for any price they can get.

However, if we go back to Mario Boone's sale, we can see that some sellers are apparently refusing to capitulate. Fortunately for those sellers, some collectors are behaving as if they believe this is a pefect time to buy. Boone's sale proves to me that some collectors are continuing to buy and are continuing to pay strong prices.

I'm back to where I began. I can't say whether prices are going to drop further, head higher, or stay schizophrenic. I am baffled.